History of the concept Self-fulfilling prophecy

merton s concept of self-fulfilling prophecy stems thomas theorem, states if men define situations real, real in consequences . according thomas, people react not situations in, also, , primarily, way perceive situations , meaning assign perceptions. therefore, behaviour determined in part perception , meaning ascribe situations in, rather situations themselves. once people convince situation has meaning, regardless of whether does, take real actions in consequence.

merton took concept step further , applied recent social phenomena. in book social theory , social structure, conceives of bank run @ fictional last national bank, on cartwright millingville presides. typical bank, , millingville has run , quite properly. result, banks, has liquid assets (cash), of assets invested in various ventures. 1 day, large number of customers comes bank @ once—the exact reason never made clear. customers, seeing many others @ bank, begin worry. false rumours spread wrong bank , more customers rush bank try of money out while still can. number of customers @ bank increases, annoyance , excitement, in turn fuels false rumours of bank s insolvency , upcoming bankruptcy, causing more customers come , try withdraw money. @ beginning of day—the last 1 millingville s bank—the bank not insolvent. rumour of insolvency caused sudden demand of withdrawal of many customers, not answered, causing bank become insolvent , declare bankruptcy. merton concludes example following analysis:

the parable tells public definitions of situation (prophecies or predictions) become integral part of situation , affect subsequent developments. peculiar human affairs. not found in world of nature, untouched human hands. predictions of return of halley s comet not influence orbit. rumoured insolvency of millingville s bank did affect actual outcome. prophecy of collapse led own fulfilment.

merton concluded way break cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy redefining propositions on false assumptions based.

in economic expectations models of inflation, peoples expectations of future inflation lead them spend more today , demand higher nominal interest rates savings, since expect prices rising. demand higher nominal interest rates , increased spending in present, in turn, create inflationary pressure , can cause inflation if expectations of future inflation unfounded. expectations theory of inflation played large role in paul volcker s actions during tenure chairman of federal reserve in combating stagflation of 1970s.

philosopher karl popper called self-fulfilling prophecy oedipus effect:

one of ideas had discussed in poverty of historicism influence of prediction upon event predicted. had called oedipus effect , because oracle played important role in sequence of events led fulfilment of prophecy. … time thought existence of oedipus effect distinguished social natural sciences. in biology, too—even in molecular biology—expectations play role in bringing has been expected.

an precursor of concept appears in edward gibbon s decline , fall of roman empire: during many ages, prediction, usual, contributed own accomplishment (chapter i, part ii).

applications

examples abound in studies of cognitive dissonance theory , related self-perception theory; people change attitudes come line profess publicly.

in united states concept broadly , consistently applied in field of public education reform, following war on poverty . theodore brameld noted: in simplest terms, education projects , thereby reinforces whatever habits of personal , cultural life considered acceptable , dominant. effects of teacher attitudes, beliefs , values, affecting expectations have been tested repeatedly.

the phenomenon of inevitability of war self-fulfilling prophecy has received considerable study.

the idea similar discussed philosopher william james believe. james viewed positively, self-validation of belief. as, in merton s example, belief bank insolvent may create fact, on positive side, confidence in bank s prospects may brighten them. similarly, stock-exchange panic episodes , speculative bubble episodes can triggered belief stock go down (or up), starting selling/buying mass move, etc.

a more jamesian example: swain, convinced fair maiden must love him, may prove more effective in wooing had initial prophecy been defeatist.

there extensive evidence of interpersonal expectation effects seemingly private expectations of individuals can predict outcome of world around them. mechanisms occurs reasonably understood: our own expectations change our behaviour in ways may not notice , correct. in case of interpersonal expectation effects , others pick on non-verbal behaviour affects attitudes. famous example includes study teachers told arbitrarily random students going blossom . oddly, random students ended year greater improvements.

other specific examples discussed in psychology include:

clever hans effect
observer-expectancy effect
hawthorne effect
placebo effect
pygmalion effect
stereotype threat







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^ how money supply , demand determine nominal interest rates . thoughtco. retrieved 2017-10-15. 
^ merton, robert k (1968). social theory , social structure. new york: free press. p. 477. isbn 978-0-02-921130-4. oclc 253949. 
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